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JABE (Journal of Applied Business and Economic)JABE (Journal of Applied Business and Economic)

Liberalization, regionalization, and globalization have made the inflow of goods, services, and capital easier to break through the regional boundaries of a country, and the barriers have continued to decrease for global trade or business. The consequences of liberalization, regionalization, and globalization demand the existence of a countrys economic transparency which can cause concerns for every country, including Indonesia, especially regarding the stability of its currency exchange rate. During the Covid-19 Pandemic, at the end of March 2020, the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar weakened by 18% compared to its position in December 2019 (before the Covid-19 Pandemic). The exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar is continuously fluctuating and tends to weaken. The volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar and its large volatility over a long period can disrupt the economy as a whole. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors that influence the volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate to the US Dollar. This research uses inferior information on duration (time series) from 2009 to 2020 (information per year). The results of the research can be concluded that the JCI, Trade Balance, Foreign Loans, Inflation, and Interest Rates have an important influence on the volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate to the US Dollar either simultaneously or partially.

The volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar is strongly influenced by the fundamental economic conditions of Indonesia.The Composite Stock Price Index, Foreign Debt, Trade Balance, Inflation, and Interest Rates simultaneously have a significant impact on the volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar.The weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate in 1998 and 2020 was mainly due to foreign investment outflows, as reflected in the decline of the Composite Stock Price Index.The study highlights the importance of maintaining economic stability and managing external factors to stabilize the Rupiah exchange rate.

Penelitian lebih lanjut dapat dilakukan untuk mengkaji pengaruh sentimen pasar dan faktor-faktor geopolitik terhadap volatilitas Rupiah, mengingat bahwa faktor-faktor ini seringkali tidak tercermin dalam model-model ekonomi tradisional. Selain itu, studi komparatif dapat dilakukan dengan membandingkan volatilitas Rupiah dengan mata uang negara-negara berkembang lainnya untuk mengidentifikasi praktik-praktik terbaik dalam pengelolaan nilai tukar. Terakhir, penelitian dapat difokuskan pada pengembangan model prediktif yang lebih akurat untuk memprediksi volatilitas Rupiah, dengan memanfaatkan teknik-teknik machine learning dan big data analytics, sehingga Bank Indonesia dapat mengambil langkah-langkah antisipatif yang lebih efektif dalam menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar. Penelitian-penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan wawasan yang lebih mendalam tentang dinamika nilai tukar Rupiah dan membantu dalam perumusan kebijakan ekonomi yang lebih tepat sasaran.

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