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Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan IndonesiaRiset Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

This study analyzes the reaction of stock markets and mutual funds to political events using a sample of 15 countries that held elections. In general, we document the returns before and after the elections and use t-test to determine the effect and f-test to measure the volatility of both. The results show that the short-term effect is significant for all mutual funds and only a few stocks are significant. In addition, with the same conditions, it does not necessarily have the same impact on the two instruments. However, we only found the short-term impact. While the explanation is not too clear, investors may want to observe the economic impact on stocks and mutual funds arising from longer time horizons.

The results show that there is a significant short-term impact across all funds and most stocks, and elections have different impacts on volatility.Therefore, investors need to be cautious in choosing investments ahead of political events and should not assume that the same conditions will result in similar returns.Investors are advised to conduct an in-depth analysis of volatility and market dynamics before making investment decisions, especially ahead of political events.

Penelitian lebih lanjut dapat dilakukan untuk mengkaji secara mendalam faktor-faktor spesifik yang memengaruhi volatilitas di berbagai negara dan jenis investasi. Selain itu, studi longitudinal dapat dilakukan untuk mengamati dampak jangka panjang dari peristiwa politik terhadap kinerja investasi. Menarik pula untuk meneliti bagaimana sentimen investor memengaruhi reaksi pasar terhadap peristiwa politik, dengan mempertimbangkan peran media sosial dan sumber informasi lainnya. Penelitian ini dapat menggunakan metode analisis sentimen untuk mengukur persepsi investor sebelum, selama, dan setelah pemilihan umum. Lebih lanjut, studi komparatif dapat dilakukan untuk membandingkan reaksi pasar di negara-negara dengan sistem politik dan regulasi keuangan yang berbeda, guna mengidentifikasi praktik terbaik dalam mengelola risiko politik. Terakhir, penelitian dapat mengeksplorasi pengembangan strategi investasi yang adaptif dan responsif terhadap perubahan politik, dengan mempertimbangkan penggunaan model prediktif dan teknik manajemen risiko yang canggih.

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