UBUB

APMBA (Asia Pacific Management and Business Application)APMBA (Asia Pacific Management and Business Application)

For decades, there have been many models explaining the returns earned in order to fulfill human curiosity. Various studies and empirical findings in many countries stock markets have shown different results in both the clarity of the model and the identification of significant determinant variables. Therefore, many comparative studies between models have been accomplished. In this study, the author attempts to conduct a comparative study between two models, APT and CAPM, in the Indonesian Capital Market during the period 2008-2012. Additionally, the author seeks to determine how much inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate explain the returns earned in each sector of the Indonesian Capital Market. The results indicate that CAPM has a greater explanatory power than APT in the Indonesian Capital Market during the period 2008-2012. Furthermore, the author found that among macroeconomic factors, only two significantly affect certain samples: changes in the BI rate, which affect AALI, ANTM, ASII, TLKM, and UNTR, and changes in the exchange rate, which affect INDF and TLKM significantly.

This study concludes that the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) outperforms the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in describing stock returns across nine sectors of the Jakarta Stock Exchange during the period 2008-2012.The analysis reveals that CAPM demonstrates superior explanatory power in terms of both R-squared values and statistical significance.Furthermore, the research identifies that changes in the BI rate significantly influence stocks in the agriculture, mining, basic industry, consumer goods, and transportation sectors, while exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact stocks in the consumer goods and telecommunications sectors.

Penelitian lebih lanjut perlu dilakukan untuk memperluas pemahaman mengenai faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pasar modal Indonesia. Pertama, studi dapat diperluas dengan memasukkan variabel makroekonomi tambahan, seperti tingkat pengangguran, pertumbuhan pendapatan per kapita, dan kebijakan fiskal, untuk menguji apakah faktor-faktor ini dapat meningkatkan daya prediksi model APT. Kedua, penelitian di masa depan dapat menggunakan periode waktu yang lebih panjang dan mencakup lebih banyak perusahaan dari berbagai sektor industri untuk mendapatkan hasil yang lebih komprehensif dan representatif. Ketiga, eksplorasi model penetapan harga aset alternatif, seperti model multifaktor Fama-French atau Carhart, dapat memberikan wawasan tambahan tentang dinamika pasar modal Indonesia dan membantu mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor risiko yang relevan bagi investor. Dengan demikian, penelitian-penelitian ini akan berkontribusi pada pengembangan strategi investasi yang lebih efektif dan pemahaman yang lebih mendalam tentang perilaku pasar modal di Indonesia.

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Pages9
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