UINMADURAUINMADURA

Mabny: Journal of Sharia Management and BusinessMabny: Journal of Sharia Management and Business

In the investment world there are rational and irrational investors, rational investors use mature calculation steps in investment decisions and predict stock returns so that this is the forerunner of the emergence of CAPM, while irrational investors only follow their own instincts, psychology and investor proxies in predicting and making investment decisions without careful consideration, so SAPM emerged. Basically, the CAPM and SAPM models are no different, the only difference is the beta, beta SAPM uses beta modification, namely beta investor sentiment. This study uses a quantitative descriptive approach to describe which is more accurate between CAPM and SAPM in predicting expected returns, namely by using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) test. The results of this study can be concluded that the CAPM model is more accurate than the SAPM model.

Based on the results of the analysis and discussion, it can be concluded that there is a statistically significant difference in accuracy between the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Sentiment Asset Pricing Model (SAPM) in predicting Sharia stock returns in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII).Furthermore, the CAPM model demonstrates greater accuracy than the SAPM model in predicting Islamic stock returns.Therefore, in predicting Islamic stock returns, the CAPM model, commonly used by rational investors, is more effective than the SAPM model, which focuses on investor sentiment.

Penelitian lebih lanjut dapat dilakukan untuk mengeksplorasi pengaruh faktor-faktor perilaku investor lainnya, seperti *herding behavior* dan *overconfidence*, terhadap kinerja saham syariah di Indonesia. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan mengintegrasikan variabel-variabel perilaku tersebut ke dalam model SAPM atau mengembangkan model baru yang lebih komprehensif. Selain itu, penelitian dapat diperluas dengan menguji validitas model CAPM dan SAPM pada periode waktu yang berbeda dan di pasar saham syariah lainnya, seperti Malaysia atau Arab Saudi, untuk melihat apakah hasil penelitian ini dapat digeneralisasikan. Terakhir, penelitian dapat difokuskan pada pengembangan strategi investasi yang menggabungkan analisis fundamental, analisis teknikal, dan sentimen investor untuk mencapai hasil yang optimal. Penelitian ini dapat membantu investor dalam membuat keputusan investasi yang lebih cerdas dan terinformasi di pasar saham syariah.

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